“Assessment of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Operational Climatic Forecast Methods and Skills over Sahelian Region”
Country of Study
Nigeria
Institution
Federal University of Technology
Expected Year of Completion
2025
Thematic Area
Climate Change, Natural Resources and the Environment
Education
Aissatou is a PhD student in Meteorology and Climate Sciences at the Federal University of Technology in Nigeria, and works as an Agrometeorologist at the Niger National Meteorological Service. She has an MSc in Biosystems Engineering from Oklahoma State University and is expected to complete her studies in 2025.
Research Summary
Aissatou’s research assesses the West Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (WARCOF) process and other relevant methods concerning the prediction of onset, cessation dates and dry spells, and seasonal cumulative rainfall and proposes strategies to improve the methods. Limited research has been carried out on evaluation of the seasonal forecast products over West Africa, especially the predictability of the season onset and dry spells during the season despite their high importance for rain-fed agriculture in the Sahel region. Insufficiencies and potential sources of biases associated with the WARCOF method have been mentioned in several studies but there is no further investigation on those sources and how to correct them, specially for onset, cessation dates and dry spells. Another shortcoming of the WARCOF forecast is its broad regional scale which is not suitable for local application. For all these reasons, the ongoing forecast process of rainfall intraseasonal variables need to be improved or complemented by other approaches in order to provide more precise information that meet end-users needs.
Publications:
1. Evaluation of the Impact of Seasonal Agroclimatic Information Used for Early Warning and Farmer Communities’ Vulnerability Reduction in Southwestern Niger
2. Effectiveness of agrometeorological services for smallholder farmers: The case study in the regions of Dosso and Tillaberi in Niger
3. Smallholder Farmers Facing Climate Change in West Africa: Decision-Making between Innovation and Tradition
